A coin flip could decide your next elected official.
Some Democrats are wringing their hands over the logjam of their candidates — 25 so far — challenging Orange County’s four Republican Congress members. One worry is draining Democratic money in the primary that will be crucial in the general election against Republicans. Another is the possibility that too many Democratic candidates could lead to vote-splitting among Democrats, allowing two Republicans to advance out of the top-two primary to the general election.
But a reader presented another intriguing — if unlikely — scenario last week:
What if the GOP incumbent finishes first and two Democrats tie for second? The state’s open primary system calls for the top two vote-getters to advance to the general election, regardless of party … unless there’s a tie for second.
Then the top three vote-getters appear on the November ballot.
In Orange County’s GOP congressional races, that could be good news for Republicans: GOP incumbents are expected to easily finish first in the primary, with Democrats likely to be battling for the second spot. If there are two Democrats and one Republican on the November ballot, Democrats’ voting splitting will likely give the Republican a big advantage.
But wait, there’s more. Things get particularly interesting if there’s a tie in the general election.
If that tie occurs in the race for governor or lieutenant governor, the state Legislature will vote to determine the winner.
For all other races, the appropriate election official will “determine the tie by lot.”
Orange County Register of Voters Neal Kelley once put names on poker chips and did a drawing, although it wasn’t for an election winner. Last year, he received two ballot arguments opposing a school bond for Orange Unified School District — and had to decide whether to use one from conservative activist Deborah Pauly or controversial former school board member Steve Rocco.
Kelley drew the chip with Rocco’s name on, Pauly sued and the courts stood with Kelley.
Ties happen
As for an election tie, Kelley hasn’t seen one since he began working in the county elections office in 2004. And Secretary of State Press Secretary Sam Mahood could not recall one happening in a California state race.
Ties are rare, but they do happen. A Nov. 29 judicial election in Mississippi was decided by a single vote — but the loser has petitioned to have one of his opponent’s mail ballots disqualified. In the case of a tie, a coin toss will decide the winner.
A Heyburn, Idaho, city council race ended in a draw last month and was decided by a coin toss — although the loser is now suing for a recount.
Those elections were relatively small affairs — the vote in Mississippi was 867-866 and the vote in Idaho was 112-112. The odds of a tie decrease with the number of ballots cast, but there have been some close calls even in larger Orange County races.
Best known in recent history was now-state Sen. Janet Nguyen’s 2007 special election for county supervisor. After the ballots were counted, she trailed Trung Nguyen by seven votes. A recount put Janet Nguyen ahead by seven votes. A court challenge by Trung Nguyen narrowed the margin to three votes, but the seven-vote victory — 10,919 vs.10,912 — remained as the official tally since the court challenge didn’t reverse the outcome.
Even closer was a 2008 Yorba Linda council race, where Jim Winder outpaced Ed Rokochy by a single vote, 11,950-11,951.
More oddities
While we’re on the subject of election oddities, there’s a situation where a tie could help a Democratic House candidate.
Let’s take Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s 48th Congressional District, where the challengers are eight Democrats, two Republicans, a Libertarian and an independent. Assuming the incumbent captures the top spot, the field could lend itself to a Democrat and a Republican battling for the second spot.
If that happened and they tied, that would put two Republicans and a Democrat on the November ballot. That not only means the Democrat would gain an advantage, but that a Democrat could win even if more votes were cast for Republicans.
The Buzz is the Register’s weekly political news column.