Updated election results show Democratic incumbent Rep. Harley Rouda locked in an increasingly tight race with Republican challenger Michelle Steel in the fight to represent coastal Orange County’s 48th congressional district.
While Rouda’s campaign said the team was feeling confident Tuesday night, they added, “We know the votes of thousands of Orange County residents have yet to be counted.”
Early returns were expected to favor Democrats. And as more ballots were counted Tuesday night, Rouda went from a modest lead to narrowly trailing Steel.
“There’s a long way to go and a lot more votes to be counted,” said Lance Trover, campaign manager for Steel.
The contest is one of the most closely watched House battles in California. The Democratic party has invested heavily in the race, hoping to hold a seat that flipped in 2018, when Rouda defeated 15-term Republican Dana Rohrabacher. But Republicans see CA-48 as the rare chance at reclaiming a congressional seat in a region that only recently became majority Democrat. The district leans further right than any other House seat in Orange County.
In the March 3 primary, Rouda received 46.7% of the vote while Steel got 34.9%. But that ticket included three other Republicans and an American Independent candidate, and if Steel picks up most of those votes she could edge out the incumbent. Voter registration in the district still favors the GOP by more than five points.
But with Rouda holding the advantage of incumbency, and with Republicans expected to struggle as they share a ticket with President Donald Trump in areas where a growing majority view him unfavorably, pundits marked Rouda a narrow favorite heading into Election Day.
Rouda grew up in Ohio. After earning a law degree and working in several large firms, Rouda took over his father’s HER Realtors brokerage firm in 1996. He followed the company to Orange County in 2007, settling with his wife and four children in Laguna Beach.
The 2016 election was “a call to all of us to get engaged in politics,” Rouda said. And he saw Rohrabacher — once dubbed “Putin’s favorite Congress member” for his connections to Russian interference in the 2016 election — as the embodiment of an ineffective career politician. And though the district remained solidly red, Rouda beat the incumbent by nearly 7 points.
While some legislators carve out a narrow niche, Rouda has championed wide-ranging legislation, from grants for teachers to requiring a report on China’s activities in relation to Hong Kong. He said that comes from a combination of concerns he hears from constituents in CA-48 and his subcommittee work that focuses on national security, transit and the environment.
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Steel, 65, was born in South Korea. Her father was a diplomat and his job took her family to Japan, where Steel grew up. She came to the United States at 19 to attend Pepperdine University.
Steel first got involved in Los Angeles politics in the 1990s, at the urging of friends of her husband, Shawn Steel, who would go on to become chair of the California Republican Party and a member of the Republican National Committee. She served on the California State Board of Equalization before winning a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors in 2014. She easily won reelection in 2018 and is now serving as chair of the board, where she’s most proud of her work to house the homeless and guide O.C. through the coronavirus pandemic.
Steel is campaigning on pledges to reduce taxes, oppose government-run health care, pursue tougher policies on illegal immigration and protect beaches, with support for some additional regulations to combat climate change.
Both candidates had more than $5 million in campaign contributions heading into Election Day, though Steel’s pool included more than $1.2 million of her own money. And Rouda attracted more outside spending to support his reelection.
This story will be updated as more votes are counted.